Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

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jakam31
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Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby jakam31 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:58 pm

May as well get the party started while I am watching the Tyslice/Smokeythebear match over in the Stakes and Sharing Board. The Week 1 pricing has been out for so long that there are plenty of values available to fit the high priced guys. Davonte Adams will be highly owned for sure but thats just one example as injuries has obviously had a major impact already.

Thursday, 9/10
8:30pm EST: Pittsburgh at New England(-3) 48.5 (o/u)

Sunday, 9/13
1:00pm EST: Green Bay(-6.5) at Chicago 50.5 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Kansas City at Houston(-1) 41 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Cleveland at NY Jets(-3) 40.5 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Indianapolis(-2.5) at Buffalo 46.5 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Miami(-3) at Washington 43.5 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Carolina(-3) at Jacksonville 41 (o/u)
1:00pm EST: Seattle(-3.5) at St. Louis 43 (o/u)
4:05pm EST: New Orleans at Arizona(-2.5) 37 (o/u)
4:05pm EST: Detroit at San Diego(-2.5) 46 (o/u)
4:25pm EST: Tennessee at Tampa Bay(-3) 42 (o/u)
4:25pm EST: Cincinnati(-3.5) at Oakland 44 (o/u)
4:25pm EST: Baltimore at Denver(-4) 51 (o/u)
8:30pm EST: NY Giants at Dallas(-5) 51.5 (o/u)

Monday, 9/14
7:10pm EST: Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 53.5 (o/u)
10:20pm EST: Minnesota(-1) at San Francisco 41.5 (o/u)

Personally I am not touching that Thursday night game even though it is a high O/U. It is hard to trust New England because they could feature Scott Chandler instead of Gronk (because #Belichick) and the Steelers don't play well in Foxboro historically. The only thing I am sure of for Thursday is that Antonio Brown will catch at least 5 passes for 50 yards.


On Sunday there are some disgusting matchups from a fantasy perspective (Browns/Jets, Seahawks/Rams, Panthers/Jaguars) but also plenty of opportunities for high scoring fun. I have been looking at a couple of ways to construct a lineup and on DK here is what I am messing with:

Tyrod Taylor and Davante Adams are both pretty cheap and have favorable matchups (Adams in particular), so you can fit whatever you want to:

QB: Tyrod Taylor ($5000)
RB: Jeremy Hill ($7100)
RB: Eddie Lacy ($7500)
WR: Davante Adams ($4400)
WR: Jarvis Landry ($5600)
WR: Jordan Matthews ($7300)
TE: Martellus Bennett ($4300)
Flex: Justin Forsett ($6200)
DEF: Jacksonville ($2700)

I don't know if Taylor is a must play even at this price because there is so much value out there but if you can stomach it, he has a good matchup for the price tag... Jeremy Hill gets Oakland and one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. I doubt in that environment that Hue Jackson puts the ball in Andy Dalton's hands too much and if (operative word) Hill gets some third down work he could explode. Pairing him with Ed Lacy gives you two sledgehammers at the goal line as well and Lacy is the safest running back on the board for week one in my opinion. You could do much worse than anchoring your team with these though, although I will concede there is a lot of value at RB this week... Davante Adams will be highly owned but you may want to go with the herd here. He gets a matchup with the Bears and they are still trying to figure out how Randall Cobb got loose in that 2013 game so I doubt they will offer much resistance. Jarvis Landry also gets a juicy matchup in Washington and it was obvious this preseason that Tannehill still loves to go to him and they were actively trying to get him the ball down in the Red Zone. On a full-PPR site like DraftKings I think he is a must play at his current price tag. Jordan Matthews is admittedly my 2015 darling as I think he has top-10 WR potential and in a Monday Night hammer game against the Falcons I think he is going to go off. This lineup lacks the star power of a Dez, Julio, Beckham or Demayrius Thomas but I think Matthews is every bit the play the play they are at 2/3 of the price. Chip Kelly loves to get him the ball and Sam Bradford had no trouble finding him in August. He is another plug and play for me... Martellus Bennett probably benefits more from Kevin White's absence than anyone in that offense and with Alshon Jeffery still hurting I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the main target for Cutler on Sunday. The Bears will have to do something to stay in the game and with a total O/U of almost 51 Vegas thinks this will be somewhat of a shootout. Bennett is only the 5th most expensive TE but he probably has as high of a ceiling as any of them this weekend... Justin Forsett as my flex in Denver is all about opportunity in terms of touches and catches out of the backfield. In case anyone here is wondering about his ceiling, go and look at what Marc Trestman has done for running backs over the course of his coaching career. Forsett could be in line for 75+ catches this season because the Baltimore offense lacks weapons and Trestman loves throwing to his backs. At $6200 I don't see how you can avoid playing him in a couple lineups as he should easily return EV+... Jacksonville gets a better matchup than anticipated a few weeks ago as Carolina's passing game is going to be a work in progress. Gus Bradley's defense got shredded a couple times last year but in a home opener against a team with very few proven weapons, I will take them at $2700.

That is just one way to go if you plan on punting QB. There are plenty of values out there to be had this weekend either way:

QB
Sam Bradford ($6900) - Bradford gets a great matchup and he looked great this preseason in Chip Kelly's offense. While I don't expect him to repeat what he did against Green Bay two weeks ago, he gets a good matchup against Atlanta and Vegas thinks the game will be the highest scoring of this week.

Joe Flacco ($6700) - I hesitated to put Flacco in here because his regular season numbers are so pedestrian but the Trestman Effect and a game at Denver could mean big things for him this week. I am concerned about his lack of weapons outside of Steve Smith and Forsett but two guys to keep an eye on are Kamar Aiken and Maxx Williams. Williams in particular is an under the radar play that has plenty of athleticism. Flake gets a shootout against Peyton Manning and Co. so the Baltimore offense will have to score some points.

Carson Palmer ($6100) - This one is my contrarian play at QB as the game has one of the lowest O/U of the week and he is coming off an injury. The thing about Palmer is that he gets a pretty good matchup and while the Arizona defense is unlikely to yield 30 points, I don't see how Drew Brees doesn't come out firing. This is a very GPP-specific play for me so tread lightly.

RB
Doug Martin ($4500) - I have gradually warmed up to Martin this year and he gets a great matchup at home against the Titans. With Jameis Winston starting at QB, I look for Lovie Smith to lean on the ground game to try and grind out a win against what is probably the worst team in the NFL. This game won't be pretty but if Martin gets the touches he can go for 100 yards and a TD.

Christopher Ivory ($4100) - I don't love this pick for two reasons: One, the Browns defense is pretty good. Two, he doesn't catch the ball out of the backfield. However, at $4100 you get a guy who will likely see at least 15 touches and get all of the short yardage/goaline work. If the Jets find themselves ahead in the second half I can see Ivory getting 25+ carries as they will try to ride him to a win.

Ameer Abdullah ($4000) - I love this pick for GPPs because he can take one touch 70 yards for a touchdown and I think he will see at least 10-12 touches with most of them coming on passes out of the backfield. The game is at San Diego so it could turn into a sneaky shootout too and for multi-entry I would put Abdullah in a few lineups without hesitation.

WR
John Brown ($4500) - I wouldn't dare mention Carson Palmer and not mention the Pittsburg State Gorilla. Brown is a burner who can take the top off of defenses and, like Abdullah, one play can turn into a 70 yard TD. I don't think he is likely to catch 8+ passes but he is the type of guy who can turn in a 5-110-1 line and if you want to get some of those higher priced receivers in there you should look at him.

Brian Quick ($4200) - This is my contrarian WR play as he gets a terrible matchup against Seattle but if you go and look at his first four games of 2014, he was putting up WR2 numbers. With Nick Foles in town he gets an upgrade at QB and he is the top target in the passing game (unless you count the corpse of Kenny Britt). This is obviously a GPP-only play but at his price tag you shouldn't ignore him.

Devin Funchess ($3800) - The last man standing in the Carolina WR group, Funchess gets a chance to hog targets from Cam Newton. I was not a fan of Funchess at Michigan because I thought he was soft and afraid to go over the middle but as the outside receiver in this offense he won't have to do that much. If he sees 10 targets he could return excellent value as it seems like his issues with the dropsies haven't plagued him yet. This will be an ugly game in Jacksonville but for $3800 and the clear WR1, you could do worse.

Stevie Johnson ($3700) - I love this play this week because he gets a likely matchup with slot CB Josh Wilson who has been absolutely garbage the last two years. The Chargers offense is an enigma to me but someone is going to have to step up in the passing game and Johnson seems as good a bet as any. By next Sunday this might be a pretty obvious pick but I like him this week and for year-long purposes as well.

TE
Crockett Gilmore ($2500) - If you want to put TE, Gilmore is listed as the starter in Baltimore. I like Maxx Williams more but Gilmore has flashed this preseason and the former Gamecock looks like he will get the majority of the snaps to start the season. Personally I would go with Martellus Bennett but TE is a wasteland right now after Gronk.

So there you go for Week 1. Everyone knows the studs (I love Dez Bryant and the Eagles this week) but that is what I think of the bargain guys to help you fit them in plus a lineup where you can punt QB and still give yourself a reasonable chance at cashing. Who knows: Tyrod Taylor at home in Rex Ryan's first start might be fantasy gold. What do you have this week? Let's get it started!
Slim Roethlisberger - A Show Me Your TD's Production

RubberDucky PPR
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Lamar Miller, Ellington, Gio, Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Devonte Freeman
WR - Damaryius, Jordy, JMatt, Charles Johnson, Quick, Toon
TE - Teal Julius
K - Du Jour
DEF - Du Jour

https://bestplayeravailable.wordpress.com

cowboybob
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby cowboybob » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:47 pm

I have no clue what I'm doing with these, but I'm going to throw out the line-up I had tentatively planned and I will take no offense if you all rip it to shreds. The are DraftKing prices: and aimed more at 50/50s.

QB - Romo ($7300) - Should be shootout, and I'm stacking him with Dez in this one.
RB - AP ($7700) - Vikings get the lead at SF and let AP run out the clock
Gore ($5400) - I can see 80 yds. rushing, 4 catches for 30 and a TD or two.
WR Dez - ($8700) - figure I need one stud WR and hoping him and Romo hook up more than once.
John Brown ($4500) - Looking for a cheaper home run
Andre Johnson ($6100) - this one was more of "fit my budget" pick, but since it's PPR, I came up with him.
Flex - Hurns ($4000) - I just have a hunch with Thomas out and Robinson being targeted by the D, that this guy will produce.
TE - Walker ($3400) - Cheap TE, and rookie QBs tend to like TE's as security blankets.
Def - Jets ($2900) - Best D for the price

Spent all my budget

Looking to learn, so let me know where I'm not playing smart. I basically set up a spread sheet that converted the $$/pts from the DS rankings to fit Draft Kings.
,

Sean1022
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby Sean1022 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:07 pm

Here's mine for week 1:

Bradford ($6900) - love him week 1 against ATL. Stacking him with Jordan Matthews.
Ivory ($4100) - in these leagues I try to find the values at RB and pay for the WR.
Martin ($4500) - I could see Martin getting a ton of work at home against an avg tenn def.
Cooks ($7100) - I'm not sold on Ari def being as good as they have been with Todd Bowles gone. I don't think Peterson shadows Cooks all game.
Julio Jones ($9300) - this could be his highest scoring game of the year. Records could be broken.
Jordan Matthews ($7200) - wanted the Bradford Matthews connection in this game. I love it.
Walker ($3400) - I don't believe in their run game and walker is the most reliable target in the passing game.
D Adams ($4400) - super cheap flex for the #2 WR in Green Bay. He won't ever be this cheap again.
Dolphins ($3000) - I really believe in this def this year no matter who they are playing, but given its Washington this week, sign up.
teams 1 and 2 - 1 pt 10 yds rushing/rec, 1 ppr, 6 td, 1 pt 25 yds passing, 4 tds

Team 1 (10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te
qb: Brady, Wentz
rb: Dalvin Cook, B. Powell, McFadden, Smallwood
wr: Green, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, S. Diggs, T. Williams, Decker
te: Ertz, Doyle

team 2(10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex (rb, wr, te)
qb: Mariota, Wilson
Rb: D. Murray, Fournette, D. Henry, Riddick
wr: A. Brown, K. Allen, S. Diggs, Crowder
te: Henry

jakam31
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby jakam31 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:22 am

Ok cowboybob, you have sound reasoning with each of your picks but if I can make some suggestions...

I prefer Romo and Dez more for tournaments because they take up around 32% of your budget forcing you to go really cheap elsewhere. For cash games I would like to spend less on my QB-WR combo so I would consider dropping down to Bradford or Tyrod Taylor (I prefer Bradford on DK because they have bonuses for passing yards that Taylor is unlikely to get).

At RB you are on the right track with AP and he is a solid core play. At $7700 he is more money than Lacy, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Demarco Murray and Justin Forsett but he also is going to get the majority of the work Monday night. Gore has a really tough matchup this weekend in Buffalo so in a cash game I would probably go in a different - in fact, I would avoid the Colts in general for cash because of that - and Alfred Blue or Chris Ivory make a nice pivot for the price if you are going to use AP. Alfred Blue ($3600) should get a ton of work and Chris Ivory ($4100) is largely game flow dependent but if the Jets get the lead they're likely to ride him in the second half.

At WR, again you are on the right track with Dez and pivoting to Blue and going with Bradford would allow you to likely fit Jordan Matthews as well. I don't mind John Brown because he is chap enough to be considered in cash games but make sure to check and see if Michael Floyd plays. Davante Adams as your flex is a must-play at the price.

At TE, Walker makes a nice target-rich play who should be plenty busy with a rookie QB. He is also cheap enough to where he doesn't need to do a lot to return value and Lovie Smith's defenses have been historically mediocre against the position.

I love the Jets D this week and that is a solid pick.

So, if I were you I would change to this:

QB - Sam Bradford ($6900)
RB - AP ($7700)
RB - Ivory ($4100)
WR - Dez ($8700)
WR - Matthews ($7200)
WR - Davante Adams ($3800)
TE - Delanie Walker ($3400)
FLEX - John Brown ($4500)
DEF - Jets ($2900)

Leaves you with $200 left and much more balanced. I am just trying to give you some ideas on what I am planning on doing. If you have questions don't hesitate to ask.
Slim Roethlisberger - A Show Me Your TD's Production

RubberDucky PPR
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Lamar Miller, Ellington, Gio, Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Devonte Freeman
WR - Damaryius, Jordy, JMatt, Charles Johnson, Quick, Toon
TE - Teal Julius
K - Du Jour
DEF - Du Jour

https://bestplayeravailable.wordpress.com

cowboybob
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby cowboybob » Wed Sep 09, 2015 1:02 am

Hey Thanks!

I've been juggling some #'s since my first post, and your suggestions are all well taken. The one spot that I didn't like in my original was Andre for $6100. I really overlooked the value of Adams in comparison to AJ. That frees up $1700 right there to be allocated elsewhere. Thanks again....Let me noodle on this some more, and I appreciate your time and effort.
,

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bigdog
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby bigdog » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:07 pm

Anyone trying the yahoo dfs system? Its a $200 budget. Maybe it is easier for those new to the game?
QB – A.Rodgers,A.Dalton,D.Watson***
RB – D.Martin,D.Lewis,T.Riddick,J.Richard,T.Cohen,Jon Williams**,C.McCaffrey***,D.Washington**, D.Cobb*
WR/TE – D.Adams,W.Snead,M.Crabtree,J.Reed,Ty.Williams,P.Richardson,M.Bennett,J.Strong*
K – M.Crosby,K.Fairbairn
DEF – Chiefs,Falcons
* - Free Keeper until ’17,** - Free Keeper until ’18,*** - Free Keeper until ‘19

4 pts – pass td , -0.5 for int
6 pts – rush/rec td
0.5 pts - ppr
1 pt – 45 yds pass, 2 pt bonus @ 300 yds
1 pt – 15 yards rush/rec,1 pt bonus @ 100 yds rush,3 pt bonus @ 100 yds rec

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DS Jared
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Re: Week 1 - Let's Get It Started

Postby DS Jared » Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:35 pm

You guys can check out my FD lineup on this week's podcast.

Here's my DK cash game lineup:

Pos Player FPPG
QB Tony Romo
RB Chris Ivory
RB DeMarco Murray
WR Davante Adams
WR Julio Jones
WR Jordan Matthews
TE M. Bennett
FLEX Stevie Johnson
DST Jets
Glad Tim Biakabatuka is out of the league.


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