Week 2...Who do you like?

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cowboybob
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Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:17 pm

I've just gone through and made a list of potential players to roster for this weekend. I haven't really put everything under a microscope but I'll throw these names out for discussion. These are DK prices:
Here’s who I’m thinking about building a few teams around this Sunday/Monday:

QBs – Brees $7800, Bradford $6900, Palmer $6700, Flacco $6400, Dalton $5800
RBs – Forte $7700, Forsett $6200, Gore $4800, Abdullah $4500, Woodhead $4000, Dunbar $3000
WRs – Antonio $8800, Matthews $7100, Cooks $7000, Landry $5900, Decker $5100, J. Brown $510, Moncrief $4600, St. Johnson $4200, T Will $4200, Hurns $3800, Lockett $3400, Beasley $3300, Coleman $3300
TEs – Graham $5800, Witten $4300, Eifert $4200
DSTs – whatever I can squeeze in budget wise but like the prices of Ravens and Patriotsat $2900. If there is room for upgrade I would love Dolphins or Rams.

At first glance I like the Bradford/Matthews stack, and also might consider Brees/Cooks and Palmer/J Brown (this one frees up a lot of cash to spend on another stud).

I like Forsett vs. Oak, and I think Abdullah, Woodhead, and Dunbar are values.

Anyone want to chime in on who they don’t like of this bunch, and whoever you think I’m overlooking?
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cowboybob
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:33 pm

Arrrrggghhh! Still can't edit (but I suppose Thursday isn't officially over for 9 1/2 more hours:

Here's a lineup I'll throw out.....fire away!

QB - Bradford $6900
RB - Forsett $6200
Abdullah $4500
WR -Matthews $7100
Landry $5900
J Brown $5100
TE - Graham $5800
Flex - Miller $5500
DST - Ravens $2900

$100 dollars under budget.
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jakam31
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby jakam31 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:59 pm

Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with an AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. Before I dive too far into that, let me recap my highs and lows from Week 1:

Hits

At QB I recommended Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer, both of which finished in the top-10 of QBs. I also highlighted Tyrod Taylor who turned in an excellent performance for the price point. QB can be a tricky position to figure out so I am pleased with my general performance at this position... Chris Ivory, Ameer Abdullah, Jeremy Hill and Eddie Lacy all scored TDs this weekend and each of them returned plus value for their price. Hill was on pace for a huge day but Gio Bernard got more work than I thought he would. Ivory owners got the game flow we were hoping for and Abdullah had more touches than Joique Bell. Lacy is going to be a pretty safe play moving forward, although the late TD he scored boosted his production up... I've been all over Jordan Matthews this summer and he didn't disappoint with 10 receptions and a 100+ yards. I was admittedly nervous in the first half when it looked like Bradford was completely lost but the Eagles were down a bunch and had to throw it all over the place. Matthews is going to be a WR1 this year. Jarvis Landry, Stevie Johnson and John Brown also had good/great weeks with Johnson leading that charge. Landry managed to return a punt for a TD which helped him out but there were some good plays in there... I recommended Gronk to the Thursday gamers and Martellus Bennett for the rest. Gronk obviously did his thing and Bennett had a 5/55/1 day which worked out to be 4x value on DK. He was another guy with a late TD so I was tempting fate a little bit with some of these plays.

Misses

Fortunately I had more hits than misses but one big flop was me being on the Ravens offense. Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Crockett Gilmore were all busts although Gilmore was just inches away from scoring a TD late in that game. I am really disappointed by Forsett because I thought this was going to be the first of many huge games but the entire Baltimore offense looked terrible. Shame on me and I apologize if you used any of those guys... Doug Martin was never able to get much going because the Bucs found themselves in a 21-0 hole pretty quickly and he only had 10 carries. This was a concern for owners this summer as Martin needs a game plan where the score is close and Tampa Bay is grinding it out. Hopefully the return of Mike Evans will be good for the entire Buccaneers offense as they head to New Orleans... Brian Quick was a scratch and Devin Funchess did nothing despite seeing 82% of the snaps in Kelvin Benjamin's old spot. It is probably a matter of time for Funchess but as for Quick, it is hard to say what happened. He may have not been ready but whatever the case was, I am hopeful he can be on the field soon... At TE, Gilmore was a bust but he was a dart throw for me. That position is shallow and will be headache to fill most of the season unless you are going with one of the higher priced options.

Week 2

So moving onto Week 2 - I am going to highlight cowboybob's GPP lineup for Week 1:

QB Tony Romo 7300
RB Chris Ivory 4100
RB DeMarco Murray 6700
WR Jordan Matthews 7200
WR Davante Adams 4400
WR Julio Jones 9300
TE Martellus Bennett 4300
WR Stevie Johnson 3700
DST Jets 2900

This was a solid lineup with plenty of upside to the core players (Jones, Matthews, Murray) as well as some big time games from Ivory and Johnson. Bob had a nice GPP cash on DraftKings with this and I congratulate him on the great start.

Moving onto Week 2, I have one GPP lineup entered that begins tonight but I am completely fading the Broncos and Chiefs. It doesn't seem to me that there is a ton of upside in rostering guys from the game tonight so my lineup will be entirely guys from the Sunday-Monday slate of games. Positionally speaking, I am going to focus on RBs this week as there are four that I really like with their DraftKings prices:

Ameer Abdullah ($4500) - He had more touches than Joique Bell last weekend and he looked ridiculous on the 24-yard TD where he shook Eric Weddle (which isn't easy). We all saw what Carlos Hyde just did to Minnesota and while I wouldn't expect nearly that type of performance, at $4500 he only needs around 12-14 points to pay off. Additionally, his value on DK where it is a full-PPR is higher than on other sites.

Mark Ingram ($5900) - Ingram was targeted 9 times in the passing game last weekend as Drew Brees had 48 pass attempts. That is unlikely to happen again this week but with CJ Spiller iffy again, Ingram checks in as a value play in a juicy matchup at home which might be the best thing the Saints offense has going for them. Additionally, New Orleans is a HUGE favorite (-10.5) against the Buccaneers so Ingram has a chance to carry them in the 2nd half if it gets out of hand. Fire him up in all formats.

Carlos Hyde ($5100) - After Monday night he is likely to be highly owned and rightfully so for this price. He also gets a matchup with the punchless Steelers defense who were just taken to the woodshed by the Patriots in a game that Dion Lewis had 120 total yards. This is a short week and a cross country trip looms large but the 49ers know they need to run the ball and play defense in order to win games so Hyde will be featured again this week.

Marshawn Lynch ($7200) - I love Lynch this week against the Packers for a couple of reasons, most notably that Matt Forte just gashed them last weekend. I also think that Seattle views this as a must-win game and they will try to ride Lynch in a tough environment. Lynch had 23 total touches (5 receptions on 7 targets) for 104 total yards last weekend in a ridiculously tough matchup against St. Louis. I think he has the potential to be the highest scoring RB this week as he is a good bet to hit paydirt at least once.

Last week I gave out some value plays but this week I want to highlight some contrarian/tournament options that people might be off of:

Jameis Winston ($5600) - After last week's dumpster fire (16-33, 201 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT) I doubt many people will be on Winston but his matchup with the Saints could turn into a shootout and his price tag is almost the minimum on DK. With Mike Evans reportedly practicing at 100%, look for Winston to bounce back in a huge way.

Marcus Mariota ($6000) - Another rookie and his price tag hasn't been fully adjusted for his Week 1 stat line (209 yards and 4 TDs). He gets a plus matchup with Browns who had difficult time last week and if Mariota can contribute anything with his legs, his upside is clearly there.

David Johnson ($4200) - My rookie mancrush will hopefully get a chance to touch the ball on a more consistent basis this week with the absence of Andre Ellington and a soft matchup with the Bears. In case you missed it, Johnson took a short pass for a 55-yard TD and he looked every bit like a stud running back with his blend of size and speed. Johnson is definitely volatile this week with an uncertain workload but as a tournament option you have to love the upside.

Adrian Peterson ($7700) - AP had a horrific start on Monday night with a 31 yard performance as the entire Vikings offense underwhelmed. I have went back and forth on AP all week but I think he is going to explode this weekend and at his price tag his ownership will be low. He is the perfect tournament contrarian play because of the cost and past performance driving people away from a guy who could easily be the highest scoring back of the week.

Brandin Cooks ($7000) - Another guy who underperformed last weekend, Cooks never really got on the same page with Drew Brees. A matchup with the hapless Bucs could be just the fix as they gave up passing yards last week to the skeleton of Harry Douglas and Kendall Wright. In similar fashion to AP, fantasy players are reactive so Cooks is unlikely to be highly owned and he could easily get you 10+ points on a single play. He is already locked into one of my lineups for this weekend and will end up on a few more.

Nelson Agholor ($5500) - Agholor was virtually nonexistent on Monday night catching just one pass for 5 yards. A closer look at the box score shows a high snap count so it is just a matter of time until he starts to produce and a matchup with Dallas presents an opportunity to do that. With Jordan Matthews eating up all the targets underneath, Agholor will likely fill the Maclin role in the offense and if Sam Bradford can get some time in the pocket, he could expose a suspect Dallas secondary. Agholor should produce more like a WR3 moving forward and at this price you can't ignore him.

Jimmy Graham ($5800) - It is odd to say Graham is a contrarian play but he is stuck between Gronk and The Field in terms of pricing at the position so he will likely go overlooked. Green Bay coughed up a 5/55/1 line to Martellus Bennett last weekend and Graham is a much better player with a significantly better QB. I think the Sunday night game will be pretty high scoring and I wouldn't hesitate to use Graham as part of a Seahawks stack.

I am fading the Thursday night game but I did fire a single bullet into a Thursday GPP without starting anyone off either team. With Week 2 right around the corner, let's get it started!
Slim Roethlisberger - A Show Me Your TD's Production

RubberDucky PPR
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Lamar Miller, Ellington, Gio, Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Devonte Freeman
WR - Damaryius, Jordy, JMatt, Charles Johnson, Quick, Toon
TE - Teal Julius
K - Du Jour
DEF - Du Jour

https://bestplayeravailable.wordpress.com

jakam31
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby jakam31 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:38 am

Bob - I wouldn't shy away from going back to the well with Bradford/JMatt. The sites haven't adjusted their pricing yet to reflect what current production is.
Slim Roethlisberger - A Show Me Your TD's Production

RubberDucky PPR
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Lamar Miller, Ellington, Gio, Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Devonte Freeman
WR - Damaryius, Jordy, JMatt, Charles Johnson, Quick, Toon
TE - Teal Julius
K - Du Jour
DEF - Du Jour

https://bestplayeravailable.wordpress.com

cowboybob
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Posts: 458
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:41 pm

Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:05 am

First off, I'm flattered that you mentioned my GPP score. Small stakes, but it's a start on building a bank roll. And your analysis and suggestions last week were a big help.

It just seems like the general mindset is that Bradford is going to break in half getting out of bed, and maybe he will, but in the meantime, if you are looking to stack, it seems like you have to have Matthews and him in some lineups. At their current DK prices they are, give and take, 2K cheaper than Ben/Antonio, Ryan/Julio and Eli/ODB. That's 2K to spend somewhere else.
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cowboybob
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:55 pm

I am fading the Thursday night game but I did fire a single bullet into a Thursday GPP without starting anyone off either team. With Week 2 right around the corner, let's get it started!


That's an interesting piece of strategy that I hadn't thought of. Your basically firing that bullet in hopes that others spend $$$ on players you don't want a part of. Anyone who spent money on Smith, Maclin, or Kelce basically overspent and gives you a leg up. Without knowing the ownership %'s, I would think that maybe some were chasing Smith and Kelce's week 1 #'s, and thinking Maclin was prime to exceed week 1.
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cowboybob
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Sat Sep 19, 2015 2:40 pm

Here's the cash game lineup that I've settled with (I think)....very open to suggestions though

QB - Bradford ($6900) - I still like the price of a Bradford/Matthews stack
RB1 - Lynch ($7200) - racked up 50.7 PPR points vs. GB last year in 2 games
RB2 - Forsett ($6200) - vs. Oak...need I say more?
WR1 - Matthews ($7100) - stacked with Bradford
WR2 - J. Brown ($5100) - I don't trust CJ?K at all, so I think Palmer wings it.
WR3 - Garcon ($5000) - with DJax out, should see target increase
TE - Graham ($5800) - Hawks are going to have to score to keep up, and that's what he's there for.
Flex -Dunbar ($3000) - He and Beasley are great cheapies this week
Def - Ravens ($2900) - vs. Oak

Question I have is it really wise to have both Lynch and Graham? Or would it be better to go with Olsen (who I like this week), Eifert, or even lowball with Miller at TE and free up $$$ to upgrade at flex or WR?
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cowboybob
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Re: Week 2...Who do you like?

Postby cowboybob » Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:03 pm

Edit last post....meant to have Landry in for J. Brown, which brings me up to budget. Targets, plus he should get a fair amount of return chances, and return TDs count on DK
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