DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

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Jukebox
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DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby Jukebox » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:36 pm

Just curious if anyone else has tried these sites?

I read this article which gives a lot of insight into the industry.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football?cmpid=twtr1

Seems like this recent "daily fantasy" trend is really just the new online poker being exempt from the online gambling laws because its considered a skill game. People who are armed with automated tools to enter hundreds of contests a day and run scripts to update their lineups based on all sorts of stats will destroy average joes who thing they can compete because they won their local fantasy league last year.

I was curious about them this year because the advertising campaign, which admittedly is super over the top and annoying, has caught my interest. I just haven't pulled the trigger and signed up for one yet. Have any other DS regulars tried it? Is it even worth it if I have a full time job and can't research 8 hours a day?
Jukebox

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CrackedAces
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby CrackedAces » Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:08 pm

tl;dr version of what I would normally post:

It's a crap shoot. Play in a "beginner" league and you have a shot. Play in the higher levels ($25 entry or more) and your odds significantly decrease. Problem is, you only get a certain number of beginner leagues you can play in, before you are no longer considered a beginner". I found more success in the $10 entries, but the payouts are much smaller, obviously. The guys that are spending $10K+ a day on games for their 8% ROI, have the means, and therefore make the money. Its the old addage:

It takes money to make money

I would try it out, and see if it is for you, but DFS has exploded in the past two years. The window to cash in is barely open now and is about to close. Much like Poker and the "Moneymaker Effect".

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby Frunk » Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:54 am

Just don't go into it expecting to win money. Throw a small amount in there and give the $5 or less tournaments a try. You get better chances than the lottery at least lol. The $5, One Million tournament has 230k people in it. So you have a 1 in 230,000 on a single entry. But for your single entry, there are guys putting in 10, 20, 30 or more entries. And to win the big tournaments, you are going to need to find a diamond who goes off! Someone who is ideally like less than 3% owned or something like that. Plus on top of the low usage guy, you have to hit on your other main lineup too lol. So it's a crap shoot, but still can be fun and not cost a lot of money.

I think what the multi entry people do, is they have a main core of guys they use, then they change up a few players and try and hit the guy who goes off for 40 points. If your core guys are on point scoring wise, you just increased your chances to win, because your going to have 10 different lineups, with 10 different home run guys.

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby jakam31 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:47 am

Play the beginner cash games and if you want some resources on lineup building, PM me.
Slim Roethlisberger - A Show Me Your TD's Production

RubberDucky PPR
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Lamar Miller, Ellington, Gio, Doug Martin, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Devonte Freeman
WR - Damaryius, Jordy, JMatt, Charles Johnson, Quick, Toon
TE - Teal Julius
K - Du Jour
DEF - Du Jour

https://bestplayeravailable.wordpress.com

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby skiballs68 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:21 pm

Juke, thanks for posting that link. It does confirm some of my worst fears about DFS. I've been doing a lot of pod listening re:DFS to get a basic 101 education, and I happened to hear an interview with a well respected veteran high stakes seasonal FF player. When asked if he was playing a lot of daily basically said that while he played it a bit, he really felt like the deck is stacked in favor of high volume players using software algorithms. In seasonal, a skilled player can still only enter one team against you, so he felt like that's still his best chance to win at FFB. This was an old dog saying, "thanks, but I think I'll stick with seasonal".

I am trying out DFS, albeit with extreme caution. A good place to start honestly seems to be DS' weekly FD contest. I was able to double my $10 entry in Week #1 and the payoff odds were very favorable- the top 200 got paid out with about 450 entries. It may not sty that way, but pretty tough to ignore it was offering nearly the same odds as a 50/50 game but with a GPP payout structure.

I played a free lineup in DK from a Leaguesafe promo. Did decently but since it was a freebie, the odds of cashing were extremely low.

I think it's healthy to enter with a Buyer Beware attitude. I'm just taking the cash I used to throw in my friends' confidence type pools and trying DFS. At least here you get the moonshot chance of hitting a crazy payout, with roughly the same chance of being up or down a few bucks at seasons end. Another way to look at the Sharks/Fish debate is that you don't have out swim the Sharks, you just need to be faster than the average fish. And with these sites exploding, there's a ton of us in the water now...

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby soupcam » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:12 pm

Ski is spot on about the Week 1 DS Fanduel game. I can't imagine the payout structure going forward will be close to what it was week 1 though, as the game was set up for 800 participants and only had 460.

I have been on Fanduel for 2+ seasons now, and while there are certainly pros out there I have been able to win money playing my $5-10 each week. I have "won" over $550 in games, and have cashed out $200 to date. I have another $150 currently in my account and only bought in for a total of $40 out of pocket. So since that original buy-in I have been playing with other people's money and have had a couple of decent wins that allowed me to take some money back. I think there are enough 'normal' players like me out there playing each week that can still do okay. The big guys are going to take the large pots, but I stick to smaller tournaments (like the DS game) with a lower top payout but also a lower number of entries and better odds of getting something back in a given week.
12 teams - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1K/1D
YARDS: 1pt per 25 passing, 1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving
ALL TD=6 pts. PPR=1/2 pt. ALL T/O = -2 pts.
Team Bonus: 6 point bonuses if your starters combine for any of the following:
300+ passing yards, 200+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards
QB: Brady RB: D. Martin, McCaffery, Gallman, McGuire, Cohen, David Johnson
WR: D. Parker, D. Jackson, M. Bryant, R. Matthews, Jaron Brown TE: Walker D: Chiefs

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Damn Yankee
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby Damn Yankee » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:16 pm

Well...for me DK/DS is the equivalent of a pick three lottery...maybe pick four. Not as long odds as say the Powerball, but good gracious the odds are long. I won $25 in the DS FanDuel contest this week and that is one of the few cashes I've had over the last two years. I've spent approximately $250 (not including any matching) and have very little to show for it in football.

HOWEVER, I will tell you guys that this year I freaking slayed it in golf...I'm up over $3200 so far. That btw is not with one big cash...but steady eddie performance for the last 5 months. Wierd...as I fancy myself an upper rate Fantasy Footballer and know just enough about Fantasy Golf to make me dangerous (more so to myself), but somehow I've made great money on DK Golf.

But...if you take it for what it's worth and don't assume your fantasy experience is going to yield you big money because when it all comes down to it, you're basically throwing down money on a craps table. I enjoy the gamble and can afford it so I continue. But daily fantasy football has not been good to me.
If it wasn't for luck, I'd win every hand - Phil Helmuth

soupcam
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby soupcam » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:19 pm

The Week 2 DS Fanduel contest is now open and the payout structure is the same as last week. It does look like they are allowing up to 20 entries per person, so there may be more big daily player multiple entries in the contest, but I still think this is a good place to play if you are testing the waters. We'll see how close to the 800 entry cap they get to this week. If it is at or below 600 or so though by kickoff this will again be a nice game odds wise as they are still paying out $20 and up to the top 200.
12 teams - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1K/1D
YARDS: 1pt per 25 passing, 1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving
ALL TD=6 pts. PPR=1/2 pt. ALL T/O = -2 pts.
Team Bonus: 6 point bonuses if your starters combine for any of the following:
300+ passing yards, 200+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards
QB: Brady RB: D. Martin, McCaffery, Gallman, McGuire, Cohen, David Johnson
WR: D. Parker, D. Jackson, M. Bryant, R. Matthews, Jaron Brown TE: Walker D: Chiefs

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby Hobbes4166 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:12 pm

Heard that Draft Kings spent $ 20M just last week in advertising. Wonder where they got that money :D
Dynasty 1 - PPR
QB - Rodgers Cutler
RB - L Miller, JHill LMurray CJ Anderson TMontgomery Perkins
WR - AHopkins EDecker Perriman KWhite THill ZJones MThomas
TE - JReed EEbron VDavis

Dynasty 2 - PPR
QB - Wilson, Cousins, Kizer
RB - ADP Freeman TColeman Dixon Kelley Mack Murray
WR - ABrown JNelson MBryant TLockett MWilliams Meredith
TE - Graham Everett Gathers

Dynasty 3 - PPR
QB - Wilson Manning Prescott
RB - DJohnson JHill McCoy Abdullah Hunt Carson Cohen
WR - Jeffery KBenjamin DJax, PGarcon, Tate Pryor MWall
TE - Reed Kelce Kittles

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby soupcam » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:20 pm

Draft Kings and Fanduel both closed major private equity deals over the summer (including investment from MLB, NHL, FOX and Google) so both are flush with cash and have been spending heavily on advertising to try to expand their user base. I would not be surprised to see one or both have an IPO at some point in the next year or two. Or the companies could merge. Wall Steeet definitely likes this business, based on the money they recently raised both companies have valuations above 1 billion.
12 teams - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLX/1K/1D
YARDS: 1pt per 25 passing, 1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving
ALL TD=6 pts. PPR=1/2 pt. ALL T/O = -2 pts.
Team Bonus: 6 point bonuses if your starters combine for any of the following:
300+ passing yards, 200+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards
QB: Brady RB: D. Martin, McCaffery, Gallman, McGuire, Cohen, David Johnson
WR: D. Parker, D. Jackson, M. Bryant, R. Matthews, Jaron Brown TE: Walker D: Chiefs

tress23
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby tress23 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 12:06 pm

The good thing is it doesn't cost much to enter these contests.The bad is you got to get lucky because you're playing against so many people.Just hope you're good enough to at least win your money back.

skiballs68
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby skiballs68 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 12:52 pm

All that Wall Street money is flowing into the Fantasy analysis industry. Numberfire.com got acquired by Fanduel, and we can see the influence it's having with contests offered to DS subscribers, etc. A lot of really smart people have labored for little or no money writing fantasy advice- this is their opportunity to make a real living off it. This is a kind of Gilded Age of FFB- it'll be interesting to see where goes over the next decade.

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby KennyKen » Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:09 pm

I started playing a few years ago on Draftstreet, which was bought out by DraftKings...I never bet more than $5 on any contest, finished 3rd in a big group once...usually my winnings in the smaller group, and not that much....mostly for fun. It's betting/fantasy merged, and the betting type guys have the advantage....
PPR Cum. Points, no H2H, Slotted Roster - 20 years, 5 time champ
Ryan, Wentz - QB
D.Johnson, D.Martin, M. Gordon, M. Jones - RBs
R.Cobb, M.Floyd, J.Gordon, E. Rogers (lost K.Allen) - WRs
K. Rudolph, J. Cook - TE
SeaBass, B. Walsh - K
Minn, SD- DEF

PPR Cum. Points, no H2H - 4 Years, 0 Championship
M.Ryan, T.Taylor, C. Wentz - QBs
AP, M. Ingram, R. Jennings, I. Crowell- RBs
A.Jeffrey, TY Hilton, G.Tate, M. Jones, J.Kerley - WRs
K.Rudolph, J. Cook- TEs
SeaBass - Ks
Minn - D

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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby Duarte » Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:35 pm

Jukebox wrote:People who are armed with automated tools to enter hundreds of contests a day and run scripts to update their lineups based on all sorts of stats will destroy average joes who thing they can compete because they won their local fantasy league last year.


This is why I just play small stakes on these sites for fun. There's too many maths geniuses on these sites creating bots that we just can't beat.

skiballs68
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Re: DraftKings and FanDuel - A waste of money?

Postby skiballs68 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:55 pm

Duarte wrote:
Jukebox wrote:People who are armed with automated tools to enter hundreds of contests a day and run scripts to update their lineups based on all sorts of stats will destroy average joes who thing they can compete because they won their local fantasy league last year.


This is why I just play small stakes on these sites for fun. There's too many maths geniuses on these sites creating bots that we just can't beat.


Both DK and FD now offer Beginner/Casual/Intermediate contest lobbies that exclude the sharks and whales. I've had better luck since midway through last season sticking solely to contests offered there. I also think it helps to work on an optimal lineup and then use it in cash games first, and maybe one or two GPPs. If you want to create a contrarian lineup for a big field GPP that's fine too but always enter your cash game lineup- they can surprise you with some decent returns even with chalky lineups.The FD intermediate level has some fun small field GPPs for $2/$3 entries with between 20-40 entrants. If you cash on those, it can help build up your bankroll a little.

Staying the course with game selection and bankroll is key to not burning through your money and getting discouraged. It's easy to get carried away entering contests. I try to enter enough 50/50 or double ups that I can be up for the week even if I don't cash on my GPPs. So like, $10 total in cash and then $3-5 in GPP. Bet more if you like, but the proportion is what's important, imo.


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