Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

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Mike@USF
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Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby Mike@USF » Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:38 pm

Last year I followed my MVP board and took a then injured Lesean McCoy in round 2 of a 12 team PPR. It didn't work out well for me.

This year I followed my MVP board and took a rehabbing Jamal Charles at pick 24 of a 12 team PPR. I already think this is not going to work out well for me.

Why should I not just take WR over these RB's that are beat up to begin with? I cannot see taking a RB with durability questions again, are they getting pushed far enough down the MVP board to begin with?

I thought the whole idea in rounds 1-3 was to not beat yourself, as in you can't win in the first 3 rounds but you can certainly lose.

atgrey
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Re: Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby atgrey » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:44 pm

The answer is, draft your own team. The MVP board is a tool, and DS makes recommendations, but in the end you have to make your own choices. DS supposedly includes injury prediction into their projections, but if you don't think that's conservative enough and a player is too high, move on to someone you like.

Players within 5 or so MVP points should be considered as equivalent value, since projections are never perfect. The MVP board is a great tool, but don't let it bully you into picking players you don't like when there's someone of similar value right behind them

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Hornsfan78
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Re: Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby Hornsfan78 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:59 pm

atgrey wrote:The answer is, draft your own team. The MVP board is a tool, and DS makes recommendations, but in the end you have to make your own choices. DS supposedly includes injury prediction into their projections, but if you don't think that's conservative enough and a player is too high, move on to someone you like.

Players within 5 or so MVP points should be considered as equivalent value, since projections are never perfect. The MVP board is a great tool, but don't let it bully you into picking players you don't like when there's someone of similar value right behind them


This should be stickied to the top of the Board. Well stated!
2016 Champion 9 Hot Dogs & a Taco and DS Keeper League
9 Hot Dogs & a Taco
10 Team Keeper league
'17 Draft Round (x) *=Keepers
QBs: R Wilson (4), A Luck (14)
RBs:*Da Johnson (18) *E Elliott (1) *J Howard (20) R Kelly (6) C Carson (13) A Kamara (16) J Allen (WW)
WRs: *K Benjamin (19) A Cooper (2) G Tate (3) D Jax (5) Ty Williams (8) J Maclin (9) C Coleman (10)
TE: *T Kelce (7)

Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K
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vafides
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Re: Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby vafides » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:00 pm

It boggles my mind how millions of people play fantasy football every year, but walk into a draft and go off of someone elses rankings.
Draft your own team, draft the players you want, and even make your own rankings.
Its YOUR team, not Draftsharks team, not dave richards, not matthew berry's team. Its yours.

Stop being a sheep and start being a wolf.

skiballs68
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Re: Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby skiballs68 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:10 pm

Mike@USF wrote:Why should I not just take WR over these RB's that are beat up to begin with? I cannot see taking a RB with durability questions again, are they getting pushed far enough down the MVP board to begin with?


Why not, indeed! In PPR drafts with 3WR, it's basically been proven that you should hammer WRs to start that draft. There doesn't seem to be much use in taking on risk in the 2nd when you could start WR-WR. RBs like Bernard are available later and provide decent arbitrage on a guy like Charles.
FWIW, DS Jared was on Twitter taking about how he's just drafted JC at 3.05 or so a couple times now. I think that's the appropriate risk/reward spot for him in those leagues.

ProfPoobah
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Re: Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby ProfPoobah » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:07 pm

Whereas I took Leveon Bell in Round 2 of a draft and have been thrilled since Week 4. It's about judging and tolerating risk. Bell is one joint away from a year-long suspension as well as an injury risk, and anyone who's had Josh Gordon might have considered that too soon to invest. Because it worked, I'm happy. Had he been re-injured or re-suspended, I'd be annoyed. Annoyed at myself, because it's ultimately it's my decision.

The most I'll tweak DS on is missing on their Breakout, Bust and such, because those are players they are specifically encouraging you to seek out or avoid, a small handful out of all the players out there. They still give projections on where those players fall, but give extra input to push you towards or away from them. The general projections are something completely different. If there are 3 players very closely grouped that happen to be ranked 1-2-3 by DS at the specific moment you draft, and you take #1 and that player misses where #3 goes off, I don't see that as anything more than the downside to the risk that was built into the projection. Did you like #3 more than #1? Did you consider jumping him to the top of the list?

That said, players obviously don't fall into line all the time. I see the point of DS pre-draft tools (not just including projections in that, by the way, but also the articles/podcasts that give you insight into what drove their thinking) as helping you leave the draft with the deepest team in your league. If one player is injured, suspended or just sucks, hopefully you've got a Frank Gore to plug in (had him in all 4 leagues as a #3 RB, thank you) or depth to help you trade for a player you like (As I did for Mike Evans in one league), and use the tools, which unfortunately have not included the chat boards nearly as much the last two years as in years past (DS, please help us build the community back up!!) to gain the insight to trade away players (as I did with Mike Evans three weeks later, for a fair bit more than I paid for him). I've been on the site for at least 15 years, and appreciate the services offered. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here. Just one man's less-than-humble opinion.

Warrenagox
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Taking Risks in the 2nd Round

Postby Warrenagox » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:13 am

Oh, thats right; we dont have any. Hmmm. Kinda defeats the whole purpose of this thread. Oh well.

Hahahahahahahhaha. Thought it would be funny to start a thread with this title... Sue me.

:

On the other hand, how wonderful is it that this thread isnt even necessary?


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