The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Only Fantasy/NFL chat. Ask-ish threads & other debris gets swept off the highway. It's not personal.

Moderators: DS Jared, DSMarty

skiballs68
DRAFT SHARK
Posts: 3274
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby skiballs68 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:54 pm

I'm going to be drafting at the 1 or 2 spot in my 12 team home league next weekend. And even after doing simulated mock drafts and reading the "Non-PPR Perfect Draft" article, I have to say it: The 2/3 turn feels like a real dead zone for value this year.

Keep in mind that Im drafting in a league where you start: QB/1RB/1WR/2Flex(RB/WR)/TE/K/DST

Picking at #23 overall: IF Gronk is there. Great! He's a fine pick. But if not...you're looking at Leonard Fournette or Doug Baldwin in many cases. Fine, but not great. And even if Cooper slips there, you're betting on more breakout from him this year. I think I'd be excited to get Dez here at what feels like a discount, but he's a surprisingly divisive player in the FFB industry this year. A lot of divergent outlooks on his 2017 season. Bottom line: At the 23rd pick overall, I WANT TO KNOW WHAT I'M GETTING.

The #26 pick has you eyeing Isiah Crowell. Again. Fine, but how excited should we be about Crowell this year? TyMont is DS' BOPOY but 3.02 feels like you're drafting his ceiling and his seasonal floor feels extremely risky. Am I really drafting Mixon or McCaffrey here?? No. The WR choices are either volatile ceiling plays: Cooks or Watkins, or guys like DT and Hopkins who would be studs with more efficient QB play. Their TD upside is pretty capped.

Which leads me to posit a fairly heretical view around here: THE optimal 2/3 turn strategy (if ADP cooperates) is to draft Gronk 2.11 and then Rodgers or Brady at 3.02. The dropoff from the 3.02 RBs or WRs to what you're seeing at the 4.11/5.02 doesn't scare me as much as it has in past years. With some luck you're looking at adding Carlos Hyde and Dalvin Cook there. Then follow up with guys like Sanders (a perfect arbitrage play on DT), Diggs (Top 12 season in play if he stays healthy), and Golden Tate. Garcon and Maclin await in subsequent rounds.

A hypothetical team through 12 rounds looks like this:
QB: Brady
RB: Bell, Hyde, Cook, Riddick, Forte, Duke Johnson
WR: Sanders, Diggs, Garcon, Tyrell Williams
TE: Gronk

Docjr
Rookie
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:45 pm

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby Docjr » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:29 pm

I'm smelling what you are stepping in, but passing on rb in a non-ppr in that format would take a lot of fortitude for me. However, Gronk as your #1 in this format makes a lot of sense, so I like it.
My post count says I'm a rookie, but I've been giving bad advice here for years!

User avatar
DS Jared
Site Admin
Posts: 2828
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:55 pm
Contact:

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby DS Jared » Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:44 pm

Whoah ... Matt and I just discussed this on today's podcast -- before seeing this post. Should be up on the site tonight.

I think you're gonna feel like you're reaching at that spot regardless. So I'd just "get your guy." I took Ty Montgomery at 3.04 in a recent draft -- a reach, but he topped my MVP Board and was unlikely to get back to me.
Glad Tim Biakabatuka is out of the league.

ProfPoobah
Rookie
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby ProfPoobah » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:46 pm

I'm assuming that trading one of these picks is not an option? Moving back a few spots here and getting to move up elsewhere seems like a nice option here.

That aside... passing on both RB and WR in the 2/3 turn would take HUGE cojones, my friend. But, I certainly can't argue with the quality of players you'd be targeting, and assuming a typically awesome season from Bell does give you a strong base from which to work. But then a possible lack of a WR until the 6th round? That scares me. I think if you follow this strategy in round 2/3 that you are all but mandating at least one WR at the 4/5 turn.

User avatar
DS Jared
Site Admin
Posts: 2828
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:55 pm
Contact:

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby DS Jared » Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:03 pm

Glad Tim Biakabatuka is out of the league.

skiballs68
DRAFT SHARK
Posts: 3274
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby skiballs68 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:28 pm

DS Jared wrote:Whoah ... Matt and I just discussed this on today's podcast -- before seeing this post. Should be up on the site tonight.

I think you're gonna feel like you're reaching at that spot regardless. So I'd just "get your guy." I took Ty Montgomery at 3.04 in a recent draft -- a reach, but he topped my MVP Board and was unlikely to get back to me.


Ha! You guys shoulda had me on as a guest. I'll have to listen to that episode. I'm drowning in FFB podcasts right now.

skiballs68
DRAFT SHARK
Posts: 3274
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby skiballs68 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:30 pm

Course, the Zeke suspension puts him into play at the 2/3 turn in some leagues now too maybe? I might be tempted to strike there.

User avatar
DS Jared
Site Admin
Posts: 2828
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:55 pm
Contact:

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby DS Jared » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:20 pm

I have the 1 pick in the FFPC Main Event and am already debating whether I'd take Zeke there. DJ + Zeke could be an absolute hammer over the final 9 weeks if you can survive the first ... especially in a format like the FFPC Main Event.
Glad Tim Biakabatuka is out of the league.

skiballs68
DRAFT SHARK
Posts: 3274
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:00 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby skiballs68 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:19 pm

DS Jared wrote:I have the 1 pick in the FFPC Main Event and am already debating whether I'd take Zeke there. DJ + Zeke could be an absolute hammer over the final 9 weeks if you can survive the first ... especially in a format like the FFPC Main Event.


You're speaking my language.

hutch360
Reef Shark
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 2:53 am

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby hutch360 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:58 pm

JARED, I BELIEVE YOU SAID THAT ZEKS'S #10 RB RANKING HAS HIS REPLACEMENT RB BUILT INTO HIS RANKING...IS THAT TRUE?

User avatar
DS Jared
Site Admin
Posts: 2828
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:55 pm
Contact:

Re: The 2/3 turn "Dead Zone"

Postby DS Jared » Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:47 pm

Correct. 10 games of Zeke + 6 games of replacement-level production puts him 10th in our rankings. You can certainly do better than replacement-level production by going relatively RB heavy early in your draft. Or by taking McFadden.
Glad Tim Biakabatuka is out of the league.


Return to “Shark Talk”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Befraddy and 1 guest