Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

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skiballs68
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Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby skiballs68 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:52 pm

2016 was an unusual year. Elite RBs had a renaissance with players at the top end scoring rushing TDs at an unusually high rate when compared to recent seasons. That impact was felt across the WR position in terms of receiving TD totals.

Last year only 5 WRs hit the 10+ TD mark. In 2015 & 2014, there were 10 and 11 WRs respectively that hit that mark.

The 5 WRs to hit were:
Jordy
AB
Davante Adams
Mike Evans
OBJ

While there may be some underlying shifts in the way NFL teams are distributing passes (3 WR sets are being utilized more often), this 50% drop in elite TD scoring seems more like an anomaly than a trend. After all, we know that TD scoring is inherently volatile. And 2016 had an unusual number of short rushing TDs scored. We've all watched in dismay as one of our fantasy pass catchers gets pushed out of bounds or tackled inside the 5 yard line and doesn't get us that TD we desperately need.

So the question I think we should be asking is, if we expect 2017 to deliver 10 or so WRs with 10+ TDs, who is most likely to make that list?

First, let's get the most obvious candidates out of the way. I expect Jordy, AB, and OBJ to score 10+ TDs.

So now we need another 7 guys. Let's get the most obvious choices in the next tier out of the way.

Mike Evans: I expect Evans target volume to take a real hit this year, with the addition of Desean Jackson and a young improving defense. Last year, this team started winning games in the 2nd half. They started running more and passing less. And Evans numbers showed it. However, he should still be TB's target hog near the end zone. In 2 of the past 3 seasons, he's scored a dozen TDs.

Dez Bryant: Dez enters the year healthy, with a good situation at QB. Dez is an elite TD scorer, even on limited targets, and the Elliott suspension should mean even more looks in the paint.

AJ Green: Assuming full health, 10 TDs is certainly in reach for one of the best WRs of this era.

Okay...so that's 6 WRs. Now it gets tougher to project. First, let's take Adams off the list of guys we expect to repeat. Even though he's got Rodgers at QB, GB added Bennett at TE, and has a healthier Cobb. Adams scored 12 TDs but posted <1,000 yds which feels a bit unsustainable.

Here are players I think have a good shot at double digit TDs:

Mike Thomas: He scored 9 TDs as a rookie in N.O. last year. Cooks left for NE. Thomas could certainly tack on another TD this year.

Brandin Cooks: 2017 NE could approach 2007 efficiency levels. If that happens, Cooks could score TDs in bunches. He's already flirted with 10 TDs in N.O.

Doug Baldwin: He scored 14 TDs 2 seasons ago. Wilson was badly injured for much of last year, so a bounce back of sorts should be in cards for both players. It s hard to imagine a slot receiver doing this again, but Wilson's career efficiency makes it possible.

Martavis Bryant: In the games he's played, he's established a Dez Bryant like knack for racking up TDs. And he won't even face most team's best CB most of the time.

Terrelle Prior: This guy just learned the WR position in 2016. And he was catching passes from Cody Kessler most of the time. Now, he arrives in Washington with a solid QB situation and a team that needs to throw it (their run game stinks). For his part, Cousins has some positive TD regression coming his way in 2017. Reed has been his binky in the RZ area, but we know the elite TE always misses games. Prior is a physical freak that should get Cousins' attention close to the goal line. 10 TDs are in reach.

Here are a couple dark horses, that I think could pull a Davante Adams' type season in 2017:

Brandon Marshall: Sterling freaking Shepard caught 8 TDs last year. I think Shepard is banged up, and Marshall is a big body that Eli should be targeting often in the paint. He's posted double digit TDs in multiple seasons. Volume is the key question, as he won;t be the prime target hog in NY like he was in Chicago or Denver.

Eric Decker: Decker has always been an underappreciated fantasy asset. He's got a nose for the end zone, and now arrives in Tenn with an emerging star at QB who's already shown elite TD scoring efficiency. What do you get when you combine an elite RZ WR with an elite RZ QB? Maybe 10 TDs. The main concern is Decker's competition for targets, but at his current cost he's a nice dark horse candidate.

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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby Sean1022 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:42 pm

good post ski...I'm on board with your analysis. A couple others that I believe can get to 10+ TD's are Crabtree and Benjamin (Benjamin schedule looks very favorable on paper).
teams 1 and 2 - 1 pt 10 yds rushing/rec, 1 ppr, 6 td, 1 pt 25 yds passing, 4 tds

Team 1 (10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te
qb: Brady, Wentz
rb: Dalvin Cook, B. Powell, McFadden, Smallwood
wr: Green, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, S. Diggs, T. Williams, Decker
te: Ertz, Doyle

team 2(10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex (rb, wr, te)
qb: Mariota, Wilson
Rb: D. Murray, Fournette, D. Henry, Riddick
wr: A. Brown, K. Allen, S. Diggs, Crowder
te: Henry

skiballs68
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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby skiballs68 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:42 pm

Sean1022 wrote:good post ski...I'm on board with your analysis. A couple others that I believe can get to 10+ TD's are Crabtree and Benjamin (Benjamin schedule looks very favorable on paper).


Benjy was a guy I considered. But the only time Cam has thrown 10 TDs to a WR was his crazy 35TD 2015. Otherwise, he's never topped 24 total. I'm also a buyer on a mini-breakout from Funchess this year. I'm not even sure if Funchess doesn't turn out to be the better WR (he's only 23).

I think Cooper and Crabs continue to cap one another's upside, which probably keeps both out of the 10 TD club. Maybe Amari makes the big leap this year, but I have a hard time betting on it.

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Hornsfan78
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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby Hornsfan78 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:50 pm

Good stuff! Hard to argue with any of it.
2016 Champion 9 Hot Dogs & a Taco and DS Keeper League
9 Hot Dogs & a Taco
10 Team Keeper league
'17 Draft Round (x) *=Keepers
QBs: R Wilson (4), A Luck (14)
RBs:*Da Johnson (18) *E Elliott (1) *J Howard (20) R Kelly (6) C Carson (13) A Kamara (16) J Allen (WW)
WRs: *K Benjamin (19) A Cooper (2) G Tate (3) D Jax (5) Ty Williams (8) J Maclin (9) C Coleman (10) J Matthews (12)
TE: *T Kelce (7)

Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K
1pt per 10 ru/re 25 pa; All TD's 6pts

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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby Hobbes4166 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:11 pm

Hornsfan78 wrote:Good stuff! Hard to argue with any of it.

+1
Dynasty 1 - PPR
QB - Rodgers Cutler
RB - L Miller, JHill LMurray CJ Anderson TMontgomery Perkins
WR - AHopkins EDecker Perriman KWhite THill ZJones MThomas
TE - JReed EEbron VDavis

Dynasty 2 - PPR
QB - Wilson, Cousins, Kizer
RB - ADP Freeman TColeman Dixon Kelley Mack Murray
WR - ABrown JNelson MBryant TLockett MWilliams Meredith
TE - Graham Everett Gathers

Dynasty 3 - PPR
QB - Wilson Manning Prescott
RB - DJohnson JHill McCoy Abdullah Hunt Carson Cohen
WR - Jeffery KBenjamin DJax, PGarcon, Tate Pryor MWall
TE - Reed Kelce Kittles

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bigdog
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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby bigdog » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:22 pm

I like the assessment. Though I believe marshall is toast. Too many years on him, I am forecasting major regression. Just a gut feel though. I like pryor but I'm not sold yet either. It's all about the chemistry there imo. Reed has it, and if he stays healthy, I don't see it disappearing.
QB – A.Rodgers,A.Dalton,D.Watson***
RB – D.Martin,D.Lewis,T.Riddick,J.Richard,T.Cohen,Jon Williams**,C.McCaffrey***,D.Washington**, D.Cobb*
WR/TE – D.Adams,W.Snead,M.Crabtree,J.Reed,Ty.Williams,P.Richardson,M.Bennett,J.Strong*
K – M.Crosby,K.Fairbairn
DEF – Chiefs,Falcons
* - Free Keeper until ’17,** - Free Keeper until ’18,*** - Free Keeper until ‘19

4 pts – pass td , -0.5 for int
6 pts – rush/rec td
0.5 pts - ppr
1 pt – 45 yds pass, 2 pt bonus @ 300 yds
1 pt – 15 yards rush/rec,1 pt bonus @ 100 yds rush,3 pt bonus @ 100 yds rec

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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby Docjr » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:54 am

Cooks scares me a bit in NE. He has lots of competition in the RZ, as Hogan proved tonight and even Mitchell in spurts last year. With a healthy Lewis and Gronk added to the mix, I don't see it in what could be one of NE's best offenses ever. I like Jeffrey's opportunity in a prove it year in Philly with a crappy running game. He was considered elite not too long ago playing alongside Marshall in Chicago. He's gonna need Wentz to break out, and he needs to stay healthy, of course. I might throw Landry in there as a dark horse candidate as well, and maybe Allen although Williams may cap him a bit there.
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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby MOSS YO » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:59 pm

Hey Doc....

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skiballs68
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Re: Double Digit WR TDs in 2017

Postby skiballs68 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:50 am

MOSS YO wrote:Hey Doc....

You must still be drinkin Patron on your vacation like a spring breaker cuz B COOKS IS gonna go CRAZZZZZZZZZZZY this year son!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PATRIOTS!
PATRIOTS !

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Ted Ginn scored 10TD in Carolina 2 years ago. Davante Adams scored 12 last year. If you've got a QB scoring 35-40 TDs, you're gonna get a double digit scorer (or two). Definitely why I put Cooks on my list.


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