5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

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platnumn
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5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby platnumn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:06 pm

The 5th pick in this draft is likely the hardest for me as I play with a bunch of savvy vets. 12team, 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-FLX-K-DEF

First 4 picks will almost assuredly be DJohnson, Bell, ABrown, Julio.

That leaves me with a huge decision:
[*]Start with Melvin Gordon (would also try snagging TMontgomery in 3rd as he won't last till 4)
[*]Start with ODB, Mike Evans, or AJ Green (would then try to get some combo of Dalvin Cook & Ty Mont)

I really don't know which way to go - reading the articles it seems like WR goes pretty deep that good values can be had in rounds 4-7
But it also seems like all the high-upside rookie RBs are going to go earlier than planned (Mixon/Cook/TMont/McCaffrey/Hunt),

....so maybe make sure I have 1 feature for sure in case I miss out on TMont? Then try to fill out with middling upside receivers like Fitz/MartBryant/Tate/Crabtree etc?

I'm really overwhelmed and since I just blew my auction draft, I want to get this snake draft right!

Also and I'm not sure for anyone else - most mock drafts my DS Ranking will be in the 3-5 place of 12, but the "consensus" rankings will have me in dead last 12th of 12th place. As usual DS is bumping up values of guys not recognized by the major outlets, but just want to make sure I'm not doing anything wrong here.

skiballs68
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby skiballs68 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:43 pm

I think I start Beckham or AJ Green there. Beckham's injured ankle sucks, but he's got monster TD upside that's almost unparalleled. I think I'd fade the 2nd tier RBs after Bell/DJ are gone.

I'd be inclined to look for Demarco in round 2 and then fade Montgomery in favor of a WR in round 3 (think Keenan Allen). Otherwise, stack another elite WR or Gronk on top of that WR pick in round 1.

I'm really not a fan of TYMONT if you have to spend a 3rd rounder on him. I own him a lot this year, but only as a late 4th rounder. I think DS undersells his terrfiying floor a bit. There are better WR options in the mid-3rd range (again, Keenan Allen).

In a lot of ways, I think the #5 spot sets up for trying a "Zero RB" approach. You could easily stack 4 WRs with Top 15 potential along with a high end TE (Gronk or Reed). Follow up with Zero RB candidates like Woodhead, Riddick, West, Derrick Henry, Burkhead, Stewart, etc. I also see a player like Mark Ingram fall into the 6th round alot, and I'd be pretty happy grabbing him.

platnumn
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby platnumn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:16 pm

Thanks for the really thoughtful reply.

Your take is interesting as I definitely was pretty set on getting TyMont even if I had to reach to the 3rd. But maybe that's why my projected rankings, both DS and when I mock on Yahoo, are less than stellar. I always try to take my mocks with a grain of salt and trust my MVP board and all the articles I've read, but in this case I just seem to be in the middle of the pack or lower after every draft, it's crazy.

I LOVE me some Keenan but am scared about his back-to-back injury seasons - in Rd 3 it looks like there could be your Hilton/Hopkins/Pryor/Demaryius/Jeffrey grouping, but I'm not sure which one of those I'd like over Keenan.

Definitely scared to go the zero RB route, especially if my league falters and I see dudes like Cook/Mixon/Hunt staring me in the face at pick 3 (or 4).

I usually shy away from Demarco due to his injury predictor, so if I were to take an RB in the 2nd I'd prefer him to be young, or with lower risk. I've seen Gurley come around to me in the 2nd round but his offense is so bad I don't know if I would have the stomach to grab him. But I'd still feel like my position is a little early to reach for McCaffrey.

You can probably tell how confused I am about what I'm going to do, but you definitely reinforced that going WR first may be the best bet.

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Hornsfan78
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby Hornsfan78 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:21 pm

platnumn wrote:Thanks for the really thoughtful reply.

Your take is interesting as I definitely was pretty set on getting TyMont even if I had to reach to the 3rd. But maybe that's why my projected rankings, both DS and when I mock on Yahoo, are less than stellar. I always try to take my mocks with a grain of salt and trust my MVP board and all the articles I've read, but in this case I just seem to be in the middle of the pack or lower after every draft, it's crazy.

I LOVE me some Keenan but am scared about his back-to-back injury seasons - in Rd 3 it looks like there could be your Hilton/Hopkins/Pryor/Demaryius/Jeffrey grouping, but I'm not sure which one of those I'd like over Keenan.

Definitely scared to go the zero RB route, especially if my league falters and I see dudes like Cook/Mixon/Hunt staring me in the face at pick 3 (or 4).

I usually shy away from Demarco due to his injury predictor, so if I were to take an RB in the 2nd I'd prefer him to be young, or with lower risk. I've seen Gurley come around to me in the 2nd round but his offense is so bad I don't know if I would have the stomach to grab him. But I'd still feel like my position is a little early to reach for McCaffrey.

You can probably tell how confused I am about what I'm going to do, but you definitely reinforced that going WR first may be the best bet.


I am curious, when you do these mocks, do you typically follow the MVP Board rankings of players? You may already be doing this, but just in case, I want to point out that to get the full value of the MVP Board you have to look at both player ranking AND ADP. You have to pass on some guys that should get back to you based on ADP. Now, if you are drafting with Sharks, you may still have to take guys you really want a round or 2 before their ADP, but you don't want to take someone that DS is much higher on than the industry 3 or 4 rounds early.

I would be scared to go zero RB as well, but I agree with OBJ or Green in the first. If Allen's injury history worries you, grab Ty Williams later in the draft. I also agree with Ski, I wouldn't reach for TyMont.

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Hobbes4166
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby Hobbes4166 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:45 am

i'm a Giants fan, but I'd be going AJ there. I think it's too early for Gordon, but would not fault you if you felt you needed an RB. OBJ's injury scares me. He's probably fine, but I would rather let someone else deal with it....
Dynasty 1 - PPR
QB - Rodgers Cutler
RB - L Miller, JHill LMurray CJ Anderson TMontgomery Perkins
WR - AHopkins EDecker Perriman KWhite THill ZJones MThomas
TE - JReed EEbron VDavis

Dynasty 2 - PPR
QB - Wilson, Cousins, Kizer
RB - ADP Freeman TColeman Dixon Kelley Mack Murray
WR - ABrown JNelson MBryant TLockett MWilliams Meredith
TE - Graham Everett Gathers

Dynasty 3 - PPR
QB - Wilson Manning Prescott
RB - DJohnson JHill McCoy Abdullah Hunt Carson Cohen
WR - Jeffery KBenjamin DJax, PGarcon, Tate Pryor MWall
TE - Reed Kelce Kittles

platnumn
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby platnumn » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:26 am

skiballs68 wrote:I think I start Beckham or AJ Green there. Beckham's injured ankle sucks, but he's got monster TD upside that's almost unparalleled. I think I'd fade the 2nd tier RBs after Bell/DJ are gone.
I'd be inclined to look for Demarco in round 2 and then fade Montgomery in favor of a WR in round 3 (think Keenan Allen). Otherwise, stack another elite WR or Gronk on top of that WR pick in round 1.


Hornsfan78 wrote:I am curious, when you do these mocks, do you typically follow the MVP Board rankings of players? You may already be doing this, but just in case, I want to point out that to get the full value of the MVP Board you have to look at both player ranking AND ADP. You have to pass on some guys that should get back to you based on ADP. Now, if you are drafting with Sharks, you may still have to take guys you really want a round or 2 before their ADP, but you don't want to take someone that DS is much higher on than the industry 3 or 4 rounds early.
Good Luck!


Hobbes4166 wrote:i'm a Giants fan, but I'd be going AJ there. I think it's too early for Gordon, but would not fault you if you felt you needed an RB. OBJ's injury scares me. He's probably fine, but I would rather let someone else deal with it....


I know this is the wrong forum but I didn't want to leave you guys hanging because I appreciated your input.

Ended up going

QB: Winston, Wentz
RB: McCaffrey, Doug Martin, Powell, Duke Johnson, JChaz
WR: Julio, Cooper, Alshon, CColeman, CDavis
TE: Ertz

1st Rd: The guy with the 4th picked Freeman, letting Julio fall into my lap. Easy decision.
2nd Rd: Demarco, Dez, Zeke, and Gronk all went right before me, so I was staring at Cooper/Hilton/Gurley and went with the WR value
3rd Rd: Keenan Allen , Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook, and McCaffrey were all there - since I had 2 WRs and I got scared, I took McCaffrey
4th Rd: Wanted Mixon or TyMont (obv) here, they both went RIGHT before me along with Martavis Bryant which I thought was early. With Fitz/Demaryius/Alshon on the board, I went Alshon.....kind of a toss up
5th Rd: Need RB2..only "quality" ones left at this point are Martin, Gillislee, CJ Anderson, Kelley, Coleman, and Powell. Knowing I wanted JChaz at the end, I took Martin because in taking your advice about ADP, I saw Powell would likely be available in the next round...and he was so I took him.

Won't bore you with the rest but thanks for the advice. Decent team on paper, I may look to trade Cooper to a team that's thin at RB (target Murray/Cook/TyMont/Mixon/Hunt), as I can fill in Alshon and have a couple decent guys to flex.

Cheers!

skiballs68
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Re: 5th Pick in 0.5 PPR Draft - Help with Mock/Selection!!!

Postby skiballs68 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:28 pm

platnumn wrote:
skiballs68 wrote:I think I start Beckham or AJ Green there. Beckham's injured ankle sucks, but he's got monster TD upside that's almost unparalleled. I think I'd fade the 2nd tier RBs after Bell/DJ are gone.
I'd be inclined to look for Demarco in round 2 and then fade Montgomery in favor of a WR in round 3 (think Keenan Allen). Otherwise, stack another elite WR or Gronk on top of that WR pick in round 1.


Hornsfan78 wrote:I am curious, when you do these mocks, do you typically follow the MVP Board rankings of players? You may already be doing this, but just in case, I want to point out that to get the full value of the MVP Board you have to look at both player ranking AND ADP. You have to pass on some guys that should get back to you based on ADP. Now, if you are drafting with Sharks, you may still have to take guys you really want a round or 2 before their ADP, but you don't want to take someone that DS is much higher on than the industry 3 or 4 rounds early.
Good Luck!


Hobbes4166 wrote:i'm a Giants fan, but I'd be going AJ there. I think it's too early for Gordon, but would not fault you if you felt you needed an RB. OBJ's injury scares me. He's probably fine, but I would rather let someone else deal with it....


I know this is the wrong forum but I didn't want to leave you guys hanging because I appreciated your input.

Ended up going

QB: Winston, Wentz
RB: McCaffrey, Doug Martin, Powell, Duke Johnson, JChaz
WR: Julio, Cooper, Alshon, CColeman, CDavis
TE: Ertz

1st Rd: The guy with the 4th picked Freeman, letting Julio fall into my lap. Easy decision.
2nd Rd: Demarco, Dez, Zeke, and Gronk all went right before me, so I was staring at Cooper/Hilton/Gurley and went with the WR value
3rd Rd: Keenan Allen , Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook, and McCaffrey were all there - since I had 2 WRs and I got scared, I took McCaffrey
4th Rd: Wanted Mixon or TyMont (obv) here, they both went RIGHT before me along with Martavis Bryant which I thought was early. With Fitz/Demaryius/Alshon on the board, I went Alshon.....kind of a toss up
5th Rd: Need RB2..only "quality" ones left at this point are Martin, Gillislee, CJ Anderson, Kelley, Coleman, and Powell. Knowing I wanted JChaz at the end, I took Martin because in taking your advice about ADP, I saw Powell would likely be available in the next round...and he was so I took him.

Won't bore you with the rest but thanks for the advice. Decent team on paper, I may look to trade Cooper to a team that's thin at RB (target Murray/Cook/TyMont/Mixon/Hunt), as I can fill in Alshon and have a couple decent guys to flex.

Cheers!


I think you did alright. I'm a little surprised you didn't snag Jaquizz Rodgers to fill in during Martin's suspension. That would have padded the landing for you in September a bit. I like what you did in the first two rounds with Julio and Cooper. 3rd is this year's Rubik's cube, so I won't nit-pick. In the 4th, I'm a Demaryius guy, so I would've went with DT.


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