Hits, Misses, and Regrets

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skiballs68
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Hits, Misses, and Regrets

Postby skiballs68 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:37 pm

With draft season over, and week 1 in the books I think it's useful to look at the things I'm happy I did while drafting and some other spots where I'm maybe a little nervous.

Full portfolio disclosure (all $ leagues, but no high stakes):
Three season long leagues, 2 redraft (1 PPR and 1 standard) and 1 PPR Keeper (DS Keeper League).
Five MFL 10s': 1 was their new "2x" format where I drafted against some industry experts, just for the challenge.

1) I may ultimately regret fading Leonard Fournette so intensely this summer. He was a hard pass for me at his lofty ADP. While he may not get the game flow script he got in week 1 all the time, he certainly proved he's a bellcow runner on a team that clearly wants to hide their QB. He may pay off his draft day value- I didn't see that coming.

2) Drafting Ty Hilton over Amari Cooper in MFL10s is probably not going to work out very well. Paging Andrew Luck, paging Andrew Luck. My MFL10 roster with Luck, T.Y., and Danny Woodhead looks pretty cooked already. Dalton is my QB2. :cry:

3) Uh...so about those Andy Dalton shares. :(

4) I drafted TY Montgomery with some real trepidation this summer. But I put my faith in the DS BOPOY, and never really had to reach for him. For at least one week, it looks like DS have a "hit" on their hands. He looks ready to rock @ATL this week.

5) Rolling the dice on Zeke at 3.02 in my home league draft on 8/20. This is a gamble that looks to be paying off bigly.

6) There's maybe no player I'm more leveraged on this year than Stefon Diggs. We are wheels up, folks. :D

7) I drafted an Ertz/Fleener TE combo in a couple MFL10s. This feels pretty filthy right now.

8.) I don't have any Dalvin Cook this year. But worse yet, see #9...

9) I ended up with zero shares of Kareem Hunt in my 5 MFL10s from July. He was a target to some extent (I was plenty aware of his upside, even without a Ware injury), but somehow I just never ended up with him. Well, let's be honest- I just never prioritized him enough and he never fell into my lap- rookie RBs were a hot commodity all summer this year (see #1 & #8).

10) Another rookie regret- I didn't draft any Corey Davis. And while Tenn may appear crowded at the WR position, we've seen cases where freak talent rises to the top of the pecking order and suddenly the targets aren't so spread out anymore. That may happen sooner rather than later.

11) Finally, I'd like to pour one out for Danny Woodhead. I own (maybe not for long?) him in 2 of 3 season long leagues. 3 catches on the first drive, and then his hammy explodes. Bummer. :(

ProfPoobah
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Re: Hits, Misses, and Regrets

Postby ProfPoobah » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:23 pm

Yeah, I feel you on missing the boat on the rookie RB talent. I have a couple of pieces of Mixon (the one RB drafted/bought as a starter who is not yet providing those numbers), one of them in the DS Keeper League. Also have Marlon Mack sitting there in that league, which may or may not work, but otherwise... swing and a miss!

I also couldn't get Ty Montgomery in the two leagues he wasn't kept in. I don't think DS were the only industry experts pimping him, because the owners that outbid me were both consulting magazines during the draft. That's mildly annoying. *shrug*

Kept TY Hilton over Jordan Howard in one league. Even with Tarik Cohen's emergence so far, that feels like a big whoops!

Spencer Ware's full injury disclosure happened the day after the keeper deadline in one league, and he was so cheap I felt like I had to gamble until we heard more. !@#$%^&*

On the other hand, I also am happy to be invested in multiple shares of Stefon Diggs, both of them keeper leagues. Slainte!!

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Hornsfan78
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Location: Hovering outside the ATX

Re: Hits, Misses, and Regrets

Postby Hornsfan78 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:07 pm

Nice post Ski, although after 1 week it may be a little premature.

I missed / passed on the top rookie RB's, grabbing Miller over all of them in the DS Keeper League (pre Ware injury; that one might sting a bit) and took Cooper in my other keeper league as I needed a WR.

Avoided Hilton in both drafts.

Did grab Carson (Seattle) in both drafts, Henderson (Denver) in DS and Kamura in the cbs league. 1 of those may pan out if not this year, next.

For the DS League took some risks on wide receiver and I think it is too early to tell yet - Doctson, John Brown, DJax and Stills all have upside or downside as does Treadwell, but at least I took him with my last pick.

In the cbs league (in sig) I took a chance keeping Zeke in the 1st. Had to declare before the injunction ruling came out, but sure am glad I did since Johnson is now out for most of the season. I hope Howard doesn't become this years Langford, or I'm going to be in real trouble. Was able to snag Buck Allen off of waivers and if Carson steps up, I should be fine.

I'm also all-in on Russell Wilson, Kelce and DJax, having them in both leagues.

I guess we can revisit this post in about 4 months. :D
2016 Champion 9 Hot Dogs & a Taco and DS Keeper League
9 Hot Dogs & a Taco
10 Team Keeper league
'17 Draft Round (x) *=Keepers
QBs: R Wilson (4), T Taylor (WW)
RBs:*Da Johnson (18) *E Elliott (1) *J Howard (20) A Kamara (16) Darkwa (WW) Burkhead (WW)
Woodhead (WW)
WRs: *K Benjamin (19) A Cooper (2) G Tate (3) D Jax (5) J Doctson (WW) C Davis (WW) J Gordon (WW) K Cupp (WW)
TE: *T Kelce (7)

Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K
1pt per 10 ru/re 25 pa; All TD's 6pts

Sean1022
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Re: Hits, Misses, and Regrets

Postby Sean1022 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:42 pm

I remember on these boards after LAST YEARS draft DS Jared said this years RB class was absolutely loaded and that just kinda stuck with me. So my teams, 2 redarafts, 1 keeper and multiple MFL10s, are loaded with this years rookie RBs. Mainly with Cook and Fournette but others sprinkled in. I did completely miss out on Hunt, which stings a bit.

My late 1st rd target this year in all drafts was AJ Green, which isn't looking so hot, but luckily I was all in on Diggs and grabbed him in just about every draft I could.

I'm also heavily invested in the titans offense with mariota and Murray so I would like them to have a good showing this week.

My TE target all year was Ertz, but I only ended up getting him in a couple leagues. The leagues I don't have him I'm a hot mess but streaming TE doesn't bother me so much.

I really liked Powell too but man that offense looked bad - I might have to many shares of him.

If my teams can avoid the injury bug, they all look pretty strong. This was definitely one of my better years drafting but oh how quickly things can change.
teams 1 and 2 - 1 pt 10 yds rushing/rec, 1 ppr, 6 td, 1 pt 25 yds passing, 4 tds

Team 1 (10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te
qb: Brady, Wentz
rb: Dalvin Cook, B. Powell, J. White, A. Kamara
wr: Green, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, S. Diggs, T. Williams, JJ Nelson
te: Ertz, Doyle

team 2(10 team) - start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex (rb, wr, te)
qb: Mariota, Wilson
Rb: D. Murray, Fournette, D. Henry, Riddick
wr: A. Brown, K. Allen, S. Diggs, Crowder
te: stream

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Damn Yankee
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Location: Ashburn, VA

Re: Hits, Misses, and Regrets

Postby Damn Yankee » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:24 pm

So early for this on a lot of players but I did have the opportunity to draft Hunt in two leagues and ignored the urge to my chagrin. My early regrets are mostly centered on my regular wait-on-a-QB strategy. I ended up with a Russell Wilson/Kirk Cousin's combo that I'm not too happy about right now but like I said, it's early.
If it wasn't for luck, I'd win every hand - Phil Helmuth


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