Keeper Strategy

Post Add/Drops or Trade scenarios here. Keeper questions too. Please no "Who Do I Starts" here.

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Choir
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Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 3:11 pm

Keeper Strategy

Postby Choir » Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:37 pm

12 team dynasty league.
1 pt per 40 passing yards
1 pt per 20 rush/receiving yards
.5 pt per reception
6 pts per TD
No TE position, TE's are WR's.

Start 1QB, 1 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 D.
16 players per team (8 starters, 8 bench)

Can keep as many as we want from one year to the next.
Lose first X draft picks for keeping X players.
(i.e. keep 6 players, lose first 6 draft picks and start picking in round 7)
Draft is not a snake draft (doesn't reverse in even number rounds)
I draft second. (1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, etc)


Current players of note: (rankings are based on MVP board for THIS SEASON only as of 14 Aug 2015)

Jordy Nelson - #6 overall, #5 WR/TE, 2.04 ADP
Eddie Lacy - #9 overall, #2 RB, 1.05 ADP.
Andre Ellington - #29 overall, #13 RB, 5.05 ADP
Brandin Cooks - #32 overall, #16 WR/TE, 3.05 ADP
Giovani Bernard - #41 overall, #17 RB, 6.06 ADP
Matt Ryan - #49 overall, #8 QB, 6.10 ADP


Others:
Colin Kaepernick - #83 overall, #16 QB, 14.03 ADP
Pierre Garcon - #106 overall, #46 WR/TE, 12.02 ADP
Blake Bortles - #108 overall, #24 QB, 16+ ADP
Terrance Williams - #122 overall, #55 WR/TE, 14.11 ADP
Eric Ebron - #171 overall, #81 WR/TE, 15.05 ADP
Alfred Blue - #177 overall, #64 RB, 15.07 ADP
Cody Latimer - #182 overall, #88 WR/TE, 13.07 ADP
Donte Moncrief - #183 overall, #89 WR/TE, 13.03 ADP
Markus Wheaton - #192 overall, #92 WR/TE, 16+ ADP



This league is QB crazy - it is not unusual for owners to have 4 or 5 QB's on their roster and I have seen owners keep 4 QB's before.
Since it is a dynasty league the top rookies usually go very quickly.

My first thought was to keep 6 players, Lacy through Ryan. That means I would start drafting in round 7.

We have to submit our list of keepers in two weeks.
I project 8 owners to keep at least 8 players and one other owner to keep 6-7 players.
But there are 2 owners in the league who I think might only keep 4 or 5 players.
That would give them one or two picks before I got to my first pick (the owner drafting first will keep at least 8 players)

I am actually considering not keeping Ellington or Bernard.
I am thinking both Ellington and Bernard will both probably hang until the second half of the draft (rounds 9-16)
That leaves me with 4 keepers and I will start drafting in round 5.
It is highly probable I will have the first (non-keeper) pick in the draft.
This would give me the chance to go after a top rookie or two, like:

Melvin Gordon (#50 overall, #20 RB, 3.06 ADP)
Ameer Abdullah (#51 overall, #21 RB, 6.04 ADP)
Amari Cooper (#54 overall, #23 WR/TE, 4.02 ADP)
T.J. Yeldon (#57 overall, #22 RB, 5.04 ADP)
Todd Gurley (#59 overall, #23 RB, 3.11 ADP)

And still have a good chance at picking one or both of them (Ellington/Bernard) back up before most of the other owners start drafting.

Right now I would be leaning towards Cooper and Abdullah with my first two picks.



What do you guys think?




Choir

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